U.S. Advance June Goods Trade Deficit Narrowed
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Exports rose, the first monthly gain in three months.
- Imports fell, their fourth monthly decline in the past five months.
- The goods trade deficit widened in Q2, subtracting from GDP growth.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed more than expected to $87.8 billion in June from to $91.9 billion in May, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $91.5 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The monthly deficit averaged $92.4 billion in Q2, up from an average of $88.0 billion in Q1. Accordingly, the goods trade deficit subtracted 0.37%-point from real GDP growth in Q2.
Total exports increased 0.2% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months, but are still down 9.3% from a year ago. The rebound was led by a 9.5% m/m surge in “other” exports and a 1.6% monthly increase in exports of capital goods excluding autos. By contrast, exports of nonfood consumer goods ex autos fell 1.2% m/m as did exports of industrial supplies.
The value of imports declined 1.4% m/m (-9.9% y/y) in June, their fourth monthly decline in the past five months. By end-use categories, declines were posted by industrial supplies (-4.4% m/m), capital goods ex autos (-3.3% m/m) and “other” imports (-4.2% m/m). By contrast, imports of foods and beverages increased 1.8% m/m, their first monthly gain in five months, and auto imports jumped 3.7% m/m, their third consecutive monthly increase.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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