U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Widened Further in January
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- $91.5 billion deficit in January, slightly larger than expected.
- Exports rebounded 4.2% m/m, first increase in five months.
- Imports increased 3.4% m/m, fourth increase in past five months.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $91.5 billion in January from $89.7 billion in December, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the fourth time in the past five months that the goods deficit had widened. A $90.2 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $125.1 billion in March 2022. In Q4 2022, a narrower trade deficit in goods and services (net exports) added 0.5%-point to quarterly real GDP growth. Today’s reading puts the goods deficit on course to widen in Q1, which would be a drag on overall GDP growth.
Total exports rebounded in January, increasing 4.2% m/m (+11.7% y/y), for their first monthly increase five months. The January rise was widely spread across end-use categories and was led by a 14.8% m/m surge in consumer goods exports excluding autos, their second monthly gain in the past three months. Auto exports were also strong, rising 8.2% m/m for their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Exports of capital goods ex autos were up 4.3% m/m in January, their largest gain since last July.
Total imports rose 3.4% m/m (+1.1% y/y) in January, their fourth monthly increase in the past five months. As for exports, the January gain in imports was widely spread and was also led by imports of consumer goods ex autos (+6.4% m/m) and imports of autos (+9.0% m/m). Food imports increased 4.9% m/m, their largest monthly gain since last March.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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