U.S. Business Inventories Rebound in April; Sales Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Factory inventories strengthen.
- Retail & wholesale sales improve.
- I/S ratios ease m/m, but remain elevated.
Total business inventories rose 0.2% (5.2% y/y) during April after falling 0.2% in March, revised from -0.1%. The gain matched expectations in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The level of business inventories has been steady since December.
Business sales overall edged 0.1% higher in April (-1.3% y/y) after a 1.5% March decline, revised from -1.2%. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.40, up from 1.31 in April of last year.
Retail inventories increased 0.1% in April (7.6% y/y) after a 0.4% March rise, revised from 0.7%. Retail inventories excluding auto dealers fell 0.2% (+1.9% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in March. Motor vehicle & parts dealers reported a 0.9% gain (26.2% y/y) following two consecutive 1.4% increases. Inventories at furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliance dealers fell 3.1% (-7.6% y/y) after falling 0.6% in March while general merchandise store inventories increased 0.5% (-2.6% y/y) after rising 0.9% in March. Apparel inventories fell 0.7% (+5.1% y/y) following a 0.7% March increase. Food & beverage store inventories fell 0.7% (+5.5% y/y) following a 0.1% rise.
Manufacturers’ inventories rose 0.5% in April (2.1% y/y) after falling 0.8% in March. Inventories at merchandise wholesalers eased 0.1% in April (+6.3% y/y), off slightly for the fourth month in the last five.
Business sales edged 0.1% higher (-1.3% y/y) during April after falling 1.5% in March. Retail sales (excluding food services) rose 0.4% in April (0.2% y/y) after falling 1.1% in March. Retail sales excluding motor vehicle dealers improved 0.4% both m/m and y/y. Wholesale sales rose 0.2% (-3.4% y/y) following a 2.7% decline while factory shipments fell 0.4% in April (-0.5% y/y), down for the fifth month in the last six.
As inventories have risen faster than sales over the year, I/S ratios have moved up. The retail I/S ratio eased to 1.29 in April from 1.30 in March, but was increased from 1.20 one year earlier. For wholesalers, the ratio eased m/m to 1.40 in April, but was well above 1.27 for April of 2022. The manufacturing has shown less of an upward increase y/y. After edging higher to 1.50 in April from 1.48 in March, it compared to 1.46 twelve months earlier.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s USECON database. The Informa Global Markets forecast is in the MMSAMER database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
