U.S. Business Inventories Rose in February, while Sales Were Unchanged
Summary
- Inventories rose in February, offsetting the January monthly decline.
- Business sales were unchanged in February but revised down in January.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged.
Total business inventories rose 0.2% m/m (9.1% y/y) in February following a downwardly revised 0.2 % (10.7% y/y) monthly decline in January (initially -0.1% m/m). A 0.3% monthly gain had been expected by the Informa Global Markets Survey.
Business sales were unchanged over the month (+3.3% y/y) in February after a downwardly revised 1.2% m/m (4.3% y/y) rise in January (initially 1.5% m/m). The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio was unchanged at 1.36 in February from January.
Retail inventories increased 0.7% m/m (10.6% y/y) in January, following an unchanged monthly reading (+11.7% y/y) in January. Excluding autos, inventories rose 0.3% m/m (7.2% y/y), after a small 0.1% monthly decline (+8.7% y/y) in January. Motor vehicle inventories increased 1.6% m/m in February, following a 0.4% m/m increase in January. Inventories at furniture, home furnishings, and electronics and appliances stores rose 1.7% m/m after a 0.1.% rise in January. Inventories at general merchandise stores rose 0.4% m/m, following a 0.2% monthly rise in January.
Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (12.0% y/y) in February, following a 0.6% monthly decrease 15.0% y/y) in January. Manufacturing inventories declined 0.1% m/m (+4.6% y/y) in February after a similar decline in January (+5.5% y/y).
Retail sales were unchanged month-over-month (4.5% y/y) in February and up 2.8% (5.4% y/y) in January. However, in a separate release this morning, retail sales were reported to have declined 1.2% m/m (1.5% y/y) in March. Retail sales excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 1.7% m/m (6.0% y/y) in January, up 0.4% m/m (5.6% y/y) in February, but down 1.0% m/m (1.9% y/y) in March.
Wholesale sales rose 0.4% m/m (1.3% y/y) in February, following a similar rise of 0.4% m/m (2.1% y/y) in January. Factory shipments declined 0.5% m/m (4.4% y/y) in February after a 0.3% m/m (5.8% y/y) rise in January.
While the overall business I/S ratio was unchanged in February, the retail I/S ratio edged up to 1.23 in February from 1.22 in January. The retail I/S ratio excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers was unchanged in February from January at 1.14. The wholesale I/S ratio edged down to 1.37 in February, from 1.38. The manufacturing I/S ratio increased to 1.49 in February, from 1.48 in January.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s USECON database. The Informa Global Markets forecast is in the MMSAMER database.
Kathleen Stephansen, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Kathleen Stephansen is a Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and an Independent Trustee for the EQAT/VIP/1290 Trust Funds, encompassing the US mutual funds sponsored by the Equitable Life Insurance Company. She is a former Chief Economist of Huawei Technologies USA, Senior Economic Advisor to the Boston Consulting Group, Chief Economist of the American International Group (AIG) and AIG Asset Management’s Senior Strategist and Global Head of Sovereign Research. Prior to joining AIG in 2010, Kathleen held various positions as Chief Economist or Head of Global Research at Aladdin Capital Holdings, Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette Securities Corporation.
Kathleen serves on the boards of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), as Vice-Chair of the GIC College of Central Bankers, is the Treasurer for Economists for Peace and Security (EPS) and is a former board member of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). She is a member of Chatham House and the Economic Club of New York. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the Universite Catholique de Louvain and graduate degrees in economics from the University of New Hampshire (MA) and the London School of Economics (PhD abd).
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