U.S. Business Inventories Slipped in November While Sales Edged Up
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Total inventories declined 0.1% m/m, led by wholesalers.
- Total sales edged up 0.2% m/m.
- Inventory/sales ratio was unchanged in November.
Total business inventories slipped 0.1% (+0.4% y/y) in November, the same monthly decline as in October. Inventories were little changed throughout all of 2023. The November decline matched the expectations of the Informa Global Markets Survey.
Manufacturing inventories rose 0.1% m/m (-0.2% y/y) in November after having been unchanged in October. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% m/m (-3.0% y/y), their eighth monthly decline in the past nine months. Retail inventories, the new information in this report, slipped 0.1% m/m (+5.3% y/y) in November following a 0.04% m/m decline in October.
The small decline in retail inventories in November was relatively widespread. Of the major sectors, only motor vehicle inventories experienced an increase (+1.8% m/m). When those are excluded, the remaining inventories fell 0.9% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline. Furniture inventories declined 1.7% m/m in November, their ninth consecutive monthly decline. Building material inventories fell 0.7% m/m; food and beverage store inventories dropped 1.1% m/m; clothing inventories decreased 0.7% m/m; general merchandise store inventories edged down 0.2% m/m, their fourth decline in the past five months.
Total business sales increased 0.2% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in November following a 1.1% monthly decline in October. Manufacturing shipments rebounded 0.5% m/m (-0.4% y/y) in November after a 1.3% monthly decline in October. Wholesale sales were essentially unchanged (+0.5% y/y) in November versus a 1.5% m/m fall in October. Retail sales edged up 0.1% m/m (4.8% y/y) in November following a 0.3% monthly decline in October. The November increase was led by higher motor vehicle and clothing sales. In a separate release today, retail sales were reported up 0.6% m/m in December.
With the monthly changes in both sales and inventories being relatively small in November, the inventory/sales (I/S) ratio was unchanged at 1.37 in November. The manufacturing I/S/ ratio was also unchanged at 1.48. The wholesale I/S ratio slipped to 1.34 from 1.35 in October. The retail I/S ratio was unchanged at 1.30 in November, where it has been since last May.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s USECON database. The Informa Global Markets forecast is in the MMSAMER database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
