U.S. Consumer Credit Declined in November after Big October Increase
Summary
- Revolving credit has sizable November drop.
- Nonrevolving credit had sizable November advance.
Consumer credit outstanding fell $7.5 billion in November, seasonally adjusted, following a $17.3 billion surge in October. That earlier amount was revised from $19.2 billion reported a month ago. For the latest month, the Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected an increase of $12.0 billion. As a percentage of disposable personal income, consumer credit was 23.2% in November, down slightly from October’s 23.3%.
In November, revolving credit, which includes credit cards, dropped $13.7 billion, following a $15.2 billion increase in October. That earlier month was revised from a $15.7 billion increase reported last month. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions rose 3.9% y/y, less than the 6.4% rise in October. Revolving credit held by financial companies fell 12.5% y/y while that held by credit unions rose 4.4% y/y.
Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $6.2 billion in November, noticeably more than the $2.2 billion in October and $1.2 billion in September. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions rose $2.2 billion in November, very modestly less than the $2.3 billion in October and also less than the $2.5 billion in September. Credit union holdings of such loans increased $0.3 billion in November, reversing their $0.2 billion decrease in October.
Student loans totaled $1.773 billion in Q3, up by 2.3% from Q2, when they had fallen 1.1%. Motor vehicle loans grew $0.9 billion in Q3, less than their $1.7 billion increase in Q2 and $2.5 billion in Q1.
The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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