U.S. Consumer Price Inflation & Core Price Gains Ease in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Both gauges are roughly half of January increases.
- Core goods & services price gains slow.
- Energy & food price increases weaken.
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in February after rising 0.5% in January and 0.4% in December. A 0.3% February rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase in the headline CPI eased to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% in January. It was below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy rose 0.2% following increases of 0.4% in January and 0.2% in December. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The 3.1% y/y gain is below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.
Energy prices rose 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) last month after a 1.1% January rise. Gasoline prices declined 1.0% (-3.1% y/y) after a 1.8% gain. Fuel oil prices rose 0.8% (-5.1% y/y) after rising 6.2% in January. Natural gas price jumped 2.5% (6.0% y/y) following a 1.8% gain and electricity prices gained 1.0% (2.5% y/y) after holding steady in January.
Food prices rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) in February after a 0.4% January increase as egg prices surged 10.4% (58.8% y/y) following a 15.2% gain. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.5% (3.0% y/y), the same as in January, while dairy product prices declined 1.0% (+0.8% y/y) following a 0.3% gain. Cereal & bakery product costs rose 0.4% (0.3% y/y) and reversed January’s increase while fruit & vegetable prices dropped 0.5% (-0.2% y/y), the same as in January. Nonalcoholic beverage prices weakened 0.5% (+2.1% y/y) in February after rising 0.9%.
Services prices less energy increased 0.3% last month following a 0.5% gain. The y/y rate of increase slipped to 4.1%, down from 7.3% y/y two years earlier. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (4.2% y/y) last month after a 0.4% rise as owners equivalent rents increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month. Lodging away from home prices gained 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after strengthening 1.4% in January. Rents of primary residences gained 0.3% (4.1% y/y) for the third consecutive month. Transportation service prices rose 0.8% (6.0% y/y) after a 1.8% January increase reflecting a 0.3% rise (11.1% y/y) in the cost of motor vehicle insurance. Public transportation costs declined 3.4% (-0.6% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January. Prices of medical services increased 0.3% (3.0% y/y) after holding steady and the cost of recreation services strengthened 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after increasing 1.4% in January.
Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) in February after rising 0.3% in January. Prices of used cars and trucks rose 0.9% (0.8% y/y) last month after jumping 2.2% in January while new vehicle costs eased 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) after holding steady. Apparel prices increased 0.6% both m/m and y/y after declining 1.4% in January while appliance prices rose 0.5% (-3.1% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Home furnishings prices rose 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) after easing 0.2% in January. Recreation product costs fell 0.7% (-2.4% y/y) in February after rising 0.3%. Education & communication product costs slipped 0.2% last month (-6.9% y/y) after edging -0.1% higher in January.
The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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