U.S. CPI & Core Prices Increase Modestly in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Core goods prices ease; service price gains moderate.
- Core prices less shelter steady.
- Food & energy prices improve.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in June after edging 0.1% higher in May. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 3.0% y/y increase was the weakest since March 2021. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.2% following three consecutive 0.4% increases. A 0.3% gain had been expected. The 4.8% y/y increase stood below the 6.6% high this past September.
The CPI less food, energy and shelter, another measure of core pricing power developed by Haver, held steady during June after increasing 0.3% in May. The 2.7% y/y increase remained below the 7.6% peak in February of last year.
In June, used car & truck prices weakened 0.5% (-5.2% y/y) following two consecutive 4.4% monthly gains. The CPI excluding food, energy, shelter and used car & truck prices held steady following a 0.1% May increase. The 3.5% y/y rise remained well below the 6.7% high in September of last year.
Goods prices less food, energy and used car & trucks held steady in June (3.1% y/y) for the third consecutive month. Home furnishings prices fell 0.3% (+3.2% y/y) following two consecutive 0.4% declines while appliance costs weakened 1.0% (-1.4% y/y), off for the third straight month. Apparel prices rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) for a fourth straight month but new vehicle prices held steady (+4.1% y/y) after slipping for two straight months. Education & communication goods costs slipped 0.1% (-7.1% y/y), after two 0.2% declines. Recreation goods prices fell 0.4% (+2.0% y/y) following no change in May.
Service costs less energy increased 0.3% (6.2% y/y) in June after three straight 0.4% gains. Shelter prices rose 0.4% (7.8% y/y) after rising 0.6% in May as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.4% (7.8% y/y) down from a 0.8% December high. Rents of primary residences rose 0.5% (8.3% y/y), matching the weakest increase since March of last year. Education & communication prices edged 0.3% lower (+2.4% y/y) after falling 0.2% in May while transportation service prices ticked 0.1% higher (8.2% y/y) after a 0.8% increase. Recreation service prices rose 0.5% (5.9% y/y) after slipping 0.1%, but medical care service costs held steady (-0.8% y/y) after falling for five straight months.
Energy prices rose 0.6% last month (-16.7% y/y) after a 3.6% May decline. Gasoline prices increased 1.0% (-26.5% y/y) after falling 5.6% in May. Fuel oil & other fuel costs were down 1.4% (-28.8% y/y) after weakening 5.3% in May but electricity prices rose 0.9% (5.4% y/y) after three straight months of decline. Natural gas prices declined 1.7% (-18.6% y/y), the fifth straight month of decline.
Food prices rose 0.1% (5.7% y/y) in June following a 0.2% May rise. Egg prices fell 7.3% (-7.9% y/y), off for the fifth straight month. Meat, poultry & fish prices improved 0.1% (0.5% y/y) and reversed May’s slip, while cereal & bakery product prices also rose 0.1% (8.8% y/y) after holding steady in May. Fruit & vegetable prices jumped 0.8% (3.0% y/y) after rising 1.3% and dairy prices weakened 0.3% (+2.7% y/y), the fourth straight month of decline. Nonalcoholic beverage prices eased 0.1% (+7.6% y/y) after rising 0.7% in May.
The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
