U.S. Current Account Deficit Narrows in Q4 2024
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Goods deficit widens to nearly largest in three years. Services surplus increases to largest in five years.
- Balance on primary income returns to positive territory.
- Secondary income balance turns slightly less negative.
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed in Q4’24 to $303.9 billion from a record $310.3 billion in Q3, revised from $310.9 billion. The series dates back to 1960. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected the deficit to widen to $336.6 billion in Q4. The Q4 deficit was 4.1% of GDP versus 4.2% in Q3.
The goods trade deficit widened to $326.1 billion in Q4 from $309.6 billion in Q3. Goods exports declined 2.0% (1.0% y/y) after rising 2.6% in Q3, reflecting declines in capital goods, autos and nonauto consumer goods. Goods imports rose 0.7% (8.6% y/y), reflecting sharp increases in food & nonauto consumer goods. Imports of capital goods & autos declined.
The services surplus increased to $76.1 billion in Q4 from $73.2 billion in Q3. Exports of services increased 2.7% (9.0% y/y) after rising 2.6%, reflecting increases in transport services, travel and financial services. Imports of services rose 2.3% (9.5% y/y), reflecting higher transport, insurance and travel services.
The primary income balance returned to positive territory ($2.3 billion). Primary income receipts increased $18.6 billion while primary income payments rose $2.4 billion. Primary income includes investment income and compensation of employees. The secondary income deficit also shrank to $56.2 billion from $60.1 billion.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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