U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Little Changed in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Aircraft orders surge as motor vehicle orders moderate.
- Excluding transportation, orders ease.
- Shipments slip but inventories & backlogs edge higher.
New orders for durable goods edged 0.1% higher (-1.5% y/y) during May after increasing 0.2% in April, revised from 0.7%, and 0.8% in March. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% May increase.
The May gain in new orders reflected a 0.6% increase (-6.1% y/y) in transportation sector orders, following a 0.1% April slip. Aircraft orders strengthened 2.9% after a 10.6% decline while motor vehicle & parts orders improved 0.7% (4.3% y/y) after a 1.5% gain. Excluding the transportation sector, orders eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in April.
Orders for primary metals fell 0.4% (-0.3% y/y) following a 1.2% April rise. Fabricated metals orders rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y), about a they did in the prior two months. Machinery orders fell 0.5% both m/m and y/y following a 0.5% increase. Orders for computers & electronic equipment improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) after rising 0.6% while orders for electrical equipment declined 0.4% (+0.9% y/y) following a 0.9% increase. Orders for all other durable goods eased 0.1% (+0.5% y/y) for the second straight month.
Capital goods orders moved 0.5% lower in May (-8.4% y/y), after a 0.8% April decline. Nondefense capital goods orders fell 0.9% (-9.0% y/y) and nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft weakened 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) in last month after gaining 0.3% in April. Defense capital goods orders strengthened 1.9% (-4.5% y/y) following a 14.3% jump in April.
Shipments of all manufactured goods fell 0.7% (+2.0% y/y) in May after increasing 0.8% in April. Shipments of durable goods eased 0.3% (+0.7% y/y) last month after strengthening 1.2% in April. Nondurable goods shipments weakened 1.1% in May (+3.3% y/y) after increasing 0.5% in April.
Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.2% (7.4% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in April. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders slipped 0.1% (-0.8% y/y) for the fourth straight month. They’ve been edging lower since late-2022.
Manufacturers’ inventories rose 0.2% (0.9% y/y) in May after a 0.1% change in the prior month. Durable goods inventories rose 0.3% (1.5% y/y) following little changed in April. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.1% (-0.1%) in May for the third straight month.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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