U.S. Durable Goods Orders Hold Steady in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Aircraft orders decline after July strengthening. Orders less transportation rise modestly.
- Shipments ease following two months of strength.
- Unfilled orders fall moderately but inventories are little changed.
New orders for durable goods were unchanged during August (+1.5% y/y) following an unrevised 9.9% July increase, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 2.6% decline. The unchanged orders level last month included a 0.8% decline (+2.6% y/y) in transportation equipment. Orders outside transportation rose 0.5% (1.0% y/y) in August following little change during the prior three months.
Last month’s weakness in transportation sector orders reflected fewer aircraft & parts bookings. They fell 4.5% (+9.8% y/y) due to a 7.5% decline in nondefense aircraft orders. Defense sector strength offset this decline, rising 8.4%. Motor vehicle & parts orders increased 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) which followed a 3.5% decline.
Elsewhere, primary metals orders rose 0.2%, but were unchanged y/y, while fabricated metals orders increased 0.6% (1.5% y/y), the same as in July. Machinery orders gained 0.5% (0.3% y/y) after falling 0.1% in July while computer & electronics rose 0.4% (2.8% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Electrical equipment orders rose 1.9% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.4% decline.
Capital goods orders eased 0.4% (+4.7% y/y) after rising by roughly one-third in July. Nondefense capital goods orders declined 1.3% (+2.5% y/y) after a 42.1% increase while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) and reversed the July decline. Defense capital goods orders jumped 5.3% (19.4% y/y) following a 2.4% increase.
Shipments by all manufacturing industries eased 0.5% (+1.0% y/y) after rising 0.8% in July. Durable goods shipments also fell 0.5% (+1.8% y/y) after two months of roughly 1.1% gain. Transportation product shipments fell 1.9% (+5.1% y/y) after a 3.4% rise. Shipments excluding the transportation sector rose 0.2% both m/m and y/y after easing slightly during each of the prior three months. Machinery shipments rose 0.5% in August (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.6% decline while computer & equipment shipments eased 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) and reversed the July increase. Electrical equipment & appliance shipments rose 0.5% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.4% increase. Nondurable goods shipments fell 0.5% (+0.3% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in July.
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in August after a 0.2% rise. Transportation unfilled orders rose 0.5% (6.8% y/y) after rising 0.3% in July. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) after holding steady in July. Unfilled orders for durable goods less transportation have been trending sideways since 2022.
Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.2% in August (0.6% y/y) after holding steady in July. Durable goods inventories edged 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) after holding steady for two months, though petroleum inventories rose 0.8% (-1.5% y/y) in August after easing 0.1% in July.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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