U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to $3.26 per gallon (-14.5% y/y) in the week ended October 7 after falling to $3.30 per gallon in the prior week. Prices were below the late-April high of $3.79 per gallon and at the lowest level since the first week of February. They also stood well below the all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Prices are increased, however, versus the low of $3.18 per gallon in the third week of December 2023. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel edged higher to $3.58 per gallon (-20.3% y/y) from $3.54 per gallon. These prices reached a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September of last year.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $71.47 per barrel (-16.4% y/y) in the week ended October 4 after falling to $69.95 per barrel in the prior week. Prices were lower than the $91.45 high in the last week of September 2023. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged to $77.14 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil edged up to $75.88 per barrel (-16.0% y/y) in the week ended October 4 after easing to $74.07 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price jumped to $81.74 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose to an average $2.67/mmbtu (-8.2% y/y) in the week ended October 4 from $2.56 in the prior week. Prices recently touched a high of $2.73/ mmbtu in the second week of June and they remained well above their low of $1.40/mmbtu in the second week of March. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu averaged in the last week of August 2022. Yesterday, the price of natural gas moved lower to $2.51/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand increased 4.9% y/y in the four weeks ended September 207 after improving 2.1% in the prior four weeks. This compares to a high of 4.2% y/y growth at the end of July. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.0% y/y in the last four weeks after falling 1.4% y/y in the previous period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.8% y/y in the four weeks ended September 27 after a 1.1% y/y increase during the previous four-week period.

Gasoline inventories fell 2.5% y/y in the week of September 27 after edging down 0.2% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 10.8% y/y after declining 13.7% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 4.5% y/y in the week of September 27 after increasing 3.6% y/y in the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories stood at 25.3 days in the week ended September 27 compared to 24.9 days one week earlier. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories rose to 25.5 days in the week of September 27. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U. S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY and USENERGY databases.