U.S. Energy Prices Mixed: Gasoline Down, Crude Oil Up
Summary
- Gasoline down just 5 cents a gallon, but crude oil up 14 cents a barrel.
- Gasoline demand up modestly.
- Crude oil inventories rise, in both quantity and days’ supply.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades decreased to $3.22 per gallon (-10.6% y/y) in the week ended October 28 from $3.27 per gallon the prior week. The latest week was the lowest since $3.21 in the week ended January 29. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ended April 22, and an all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 11, 2022. The latest measure of on-highway diesel fuel prices was $3.57 per gallon (-19.8% y/y), also in the week ended October 28, up from $3.55 per gallon the prior week. That fuel price has a recent range of $2.37 per gallon in the week ended November 2, 2020, to $5.81 in the week of June 20, 2022.
Crude oil prices rose modestly in the week ended October 25 to $71.08 per barrel (-16.3% y/y) from $70.94 the week before. The recent range of the weekly average of this West Texas Intermediate crude oil price has run from $69.41 the week of March 24, 2023, to $91.45 the week of September 29, 2023. Yesterday, October 28, this crude oil spot price was $67.38. The price of European Brent crude oil was $71.87 per barrel yesterday and averaged $74.69 last week (-16.9% y/y).
Gasoline demand rose 3.6% y/y in the four weeks ended October 18, slowing from 5.4% in the four weeks ended October 11 and 7.5% in the four weeks ended October 4. Demand for all petroleum products increased 1.4% in the four weeks ended October 18 after a 2.8% increase in the four weeks ended October 11.
Crude oil input to refineries rose 2.8% in the four-week period ended October 18 after a 1.8% increase in the four weeks ended October 11.
Gasoline inventories fell 4.4% y/y in the week ended October 18 after decreasing 4.7% the week before. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 7.4% in the October 18 week after decreasing 9.1% the prior week. In contrast, crude oil inventories grew 5.0% y/y in the latest week following a 4.3% increase the week before.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 24.0 in the week ended October 18, up from 23.6 days in the October 11 week. That earlier week was the lowest since 23.4 days in the week ended June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories rose to 27.0 days’ supply in the October 18 week from 26.5 days in the October 11 week. These latest crude oil supply amounts compare to a range from a low of 24.8 days in the week ended September 20, 2024, to a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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