U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices edge lower.
- Crude oil prices improve.
- Natural gas prices move up.
Retail gasoline prices eased in the week ended February 20 to $3.38 per gallon (-4.3% y/y) from $3.39 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon but above their late December 2022 low of $3.09. The retail price of diesel fuel fell to $4.38 per gallon (+7.9% y/y) last week from $4.44 per gallon in the previous week. The price reached a peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022 but the latest cost was the lowest since February of last year.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $78.53 per barrel (-15.4% y/y) in the week ended February 17 after climbing to $77.51 in the week prior. Prices have been near that level since early-December. Its recent high was $120.46 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $76.16 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil rose to $84.82 per barrel last week from $82.96 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $124.05 in mid-June of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $82 .96 per barrel.
The price of natural gas moved up to $2.41/mmbtu (-45.1% y/y) in the week ended February 17 after falling to $2.34 in the prior week. Warm winter temperatures had caused prices to fall in the prior eight weeks from $6.78 in the third week of December. The current price is near the lowest level since October 2020. The most recent peak was $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August. Yesterday, the price was $2.42/mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended February 10, gasoline demand declined 3.2% from a year earlier and has been falling since mid-2021. Demand for all petroleum products fell 10.2% y/y in the latest four weeks and also has been falling since 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 1.4% y/y, after it trended sideways through much of 2022.
Gasoline inventories declined 2.1% y/y in the week ended February 10 but have risen sharply since early-November. Crude oil inventories slumped 15.4% y/y but have jumped since late-December.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended February 10 edged up w/w to 29.0 days from 28.9 days in the previous week. The low had been 23.3 days in early-November. The supply of crude oil rose to 31.2 days and has been rising since a low of 25.2 days in the first week of December.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in USENERGY.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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