U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Decline in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales reach lowest level in 13-years.
- Decline is most pronounced in Midwest.
- Home prices fall to nine-month low.
Sales of existing homes declined 1.0% (-6.2% y/y) during December to 3.78 million (SAAR) after an unrevised 0.8% November gain and a 4.1% October drop. Sales were at the lowest level since August 2010 after the most recent peak of 6.56 million in January 2021. During all of last year, there were 4.1 million existing homes sold versus 5.1 million in 2022 and 6.1 million in 2021. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed in earlier months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected December sales of 3.83 million units.
The median price of all existing homes (NSA) fell 1.3% (+4.4% y/y) to $382,600, the sixth consecutive month of price decline. Prices were 7.5% below the June 2022 peak of $413,800. The median price of an existing single-family home in December fell 1.3% (+4.0% y/y) to $387,000 after declining 1.0% in November. The median price for condos & co-ops declined 1.8% (+8.2%) to $343,800 after falling 1.3% in November.
Single-family home sales fell 0.3% (-6.1% y/y) to 3.40 million units after a 0.9% November increase. Sales were 41.9% lower than their high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales declined 7.3% both m/m and y/y to 380,000 after holding steady in November. Sales have fallen 49.3% from their January 2021 high of 750,000.
Overall sales were mixed m/m across the country. Sales in the Midwest fell 4.3% (-10.9% y/y) to 900,000 last month after rising 1.1% in November. Sales in the South weakened 2.8% (-4.4% y/y) in December to 1.72 million after rising 4.7% in November. Sales in the Northeast held steady (-9.6% y/y) at 470,000 after declining in both of the prior two months. Sales in the West rose 7.8% (-1.4% y/y) to 690,000 after falling in each of the prior four months.
The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) fell 11.5% (+4.2% y/y) to 1.00 million in December after declining 1.7% in November. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) fell to 3.2 months from 3.5 months. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed’s latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
