U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in July; Prices Decline

Sales of existing homes rose 1.3% during July (-2.5% y/y) to 3.950 million units (SAAR) from 3.90 million in June, revised from 3.89 million units after declining an unrevised 0.7% during May. Sales had fallen for four consecutive months before the July increase. The latest rise came as 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 6.85% last month versus 6.92% in June. These rates are below the high of 7.62% averaged last October, according to Freddie Mac. Sales remained up from their low of 3.85 million in October 2023. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected July sales of 3.91 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed in earlier months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) eased 1.0% in July (+4.2% y/y) to $422,600 after rising to a record $426,900 in June. Prices remained almost double their level of $221,600 ten years earlier. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.0% (+4.2% y/y) in July to $428,500 after rising 2.5% to a record $432,900 in June. The median price for condos & co-ops declined 1.1% (+2.7%) to $367,500, after rising 0.7% in June. By region, existing home prices ranged from $629,500 (3.4% y/y) in the West to $505,100 (8.3% y/y) in the Northeast to $372,500 (2.3% y/y) in the South and to $321,300 (4.5% y/y) in the Midwest.

Single-family home sales rose 1.4% (-1.4% y/y) last month to 3.57 million units, after four straight months of decline. Sales were 39.0% below their high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales held steady (-11.6% y/y) at 380,000 following a 5.0% June decline. These sales have declined 48.6% since the January 2021 high of 740,000.

During July, sales in the South improved 1.1% (-3.8% y/y) to 1.79 million following four consecutive months of decline. In the Northeast, sales rose 4.3% (2.1% y/y) to 490,000 after falling 2.1% in June. In the West, sales improved 1.4% both m/m and y/y to 750,000 after falling 2.6% in June. Sales in the Midwest held steady (-5.2% y/y) at 920,000 after declining 8.0% in June. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 0.8% (19.8% y/y) to 1.33 million in July after rising 3.1% in June. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) eased to 4.0 months from 4.1 months in June. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR **database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the WEEKLY database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.

Measurement and Theory of Core Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here