U.S. Factory Orders and Shipments Fell in November
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
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New orders fell 1.8% m/m in November after three consecutive monthly gains with a downward revision to October.
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Shipments declined 0.6% m/m following three consecutive monthly increases.
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Unfilled orders and inventories were essentially unchanged in November.
Total factory orders slumped 1.8% m/m (+7.3% y/y) in November, the first monthly decline in the past four months, following a downwardly revised 0.4% m/m gain in October (previously 1.0% m/m), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.9% m/m decrease for November had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.8% m/m (+6.2% y/y), their third monthly decline in the past five months, following a downwardly revised 0.1% monthly increase in October (previously +0.8% m/m).
Durable goods orders fell 2.1% m/m (+6.5% y/y) in November, their largest monthly decline since April 2020, following a downwardly revised 0.7% m/m increase in October (previously +1.1% m/m). The November decline in durables goods orders was more than accounted for by a 6.3% m/m drop in orders for transportation equipment. When those are excluded, remaining durable goods orders edged up 0.1% m/m in November with most other major sectors posting small gains.
Total manufacturing shipments decreased 0.6% m/m (+8.5% y/y) in November, their first monthly decline in four months, following a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m increase in October (previously +0.7% m/m). Shipments excluding transportation fell 0.9% m/m (+6.9% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m gain in October (previously +0.8% m/m). Shipments of durable goods edged up 0.2% m/m in November while shipments of nondurable goods (which equal orders) slumped 1.4% m/m, their first decline in four months, after a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m increase in October (previously +1.0% m/m).
For shipments of durable goods, five sectors reported monthly increases in November while five reported monthly declines. The largest increase was in shipments of electrical equipment and appliances, which rose 1.3% m/m in November, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. The largest decline was a 1.3% m/m decrease in primary metals shipments, their third consecutive monthly decline. Of note, machinery shipments slipped 0.1% m/m in November, their first monthly decline since February.
The sharp drop in nondurable goods shipments was mostly accounted for by a 5.5% m/m decline in petroleum and coal shipments, which was largely a reflection of lower prices. Excluding petroleum shipments, the remainder of nondurable goods shipments edged down 0.1% m/m in November.
Unfilled orders were essentially unchanged in November from October (+6.5% y/y) while unfilled orders excluding transportation edged up 0.1% m/m (+3.0% y/y). Inventories were also unchanged in November (+6.4% y/y) after increases in both September and October with durable goods inventories edging up 0.1% m/m and nondurable goods inventories slipping 0.1% m/m, their fourth decline in the past five months.
The factory sector data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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