U.S. Factory Orders Decline in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- New orders reverse December increase.
- Shipments rebound after two months of decline.
- Unfilled orders and inventories hold steady.
Total factory orders fell 1.6% (+4.3% y/y) during January after rising 1.7% in December, revised from 1.8%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 1.9% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 1.2% (4.0% y/y) and reversed an unrevised 1.2% December decline. Orders less transportation also fell 1.2% in November.
Durable goods orders fell 4.5% (+3.0% y/y) in January after rising 5.1% in December. The decline was unrevised from the advance report. A 13.3% plunge (+5.8% y/y) in transportation equipment orders weighed on orders overall. It reflected a halving in civilian aircraft orders. Motor vehicle orders rose 1.3% (5.4% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance orders rose 1.3% (9.7% y/y), strong for the third straight month, while machinery orders increased 1.6% (2.3% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products improved 0.6% (2.3% y/y) while furniture orders rose 0.7% (7.2% y/y).
Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, rose 1.5% (5.5% y/y) during January. Petroleum & coal shipments increased 5.1% (14.5 y/y). Food product shipments rose 0.4% (3.0% y/y) but apparel shipments fell 0.9% (+8.3% y/y). Textile product shipments held steady (-1.1% y/y). Paper product shipments rose 1.1% (1.4% y/y) and basic chemical shipments strengthened 1.1% (2.3% y/y).
Total manufacturing shipments increased 0.7% (6.2% y/y) in January. Shipments excluding transportation rose 1.2% (4.7% y/y) after falling sharply for two straight months. Shipments of durable goods eased slightly (+6.9% y/y). Electrical equipment and appliance shipments rose 3.3% (+11.7% y/y) but transportation shipments weakened 1.7% (+14.2% y/y). Primary metals shipments improved 0.9% (0.6% y/y) while machinery shipments increased 1.2% (4.9% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments increased 0.4% (6.1% y/y).
Unfilled orders held steady in January (6.3% y/y) after increasing 1.1% in December. Order backlogs excluding transportation eased 0.1% (+1.5% y/y) and have been roughly unchanged for five straight months. Backlogs of durable goods also were unchanged (6.3% y/y) as were backlogs in most major industry groups.
Factory sector inventories in January were unchanged (5.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in December. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.1% (6.3% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in December. Durable goods inventories eased 0.1% (+5.2% y/y) and nondurable goods inventories rose 0.2% (6.3% y/y).
The factory sector data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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