U.S. Factory Orders Increase 0.3% As Expected in September
Summary
- Sept. new orders +0.3%; Aug. revised up to +0.2% (from virtually unchanged).
- Shipments rise 0.2%, w/ a 0.2% gain in nondurable goods.
- Unfilled orders increase 0.5%, the same m/m pace as in Aug., while inventories rebound 0.2%.
Total factory orders rose 0.3% m/m (12.0% y/y) in September after a 0.2% increase in August (-0.01% originally) and a 1.0% decline in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The September m/m rise was the 11th in 12 months. The latest figure was as expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector dipped 0.1% (+9.6% y/y), the second m/m easing in three months, after a 0.1% August uptick.
Durable goods orders grew 0.4% (11.4% y/y) in September, the sixth m/m gain in seven months, after a 0.2% rise in August (also +0.4% for Sept. in the advance report). The September rise reflected m/m orders increases of 2.2% (25.3% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.8% (2.7% y/y) in furniture & related products. To the downside, orders for primary metals (-1.9%; +4.6% y/y), electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.2%; +6.3% y/y), fabricated metal products (-0.5%; +2.4% y/y), computers & electronic products (-0.4%; +6.4% y/y), and machinery (-0.1%; +7.5% y/y) posted their m/m declines in September.
Total shipments increased 0.2% (11.8% y/y) in September, the 18th m/m gain in 19 months, after a 0.7% rebound in August. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged (10.2% y/y) after a 0.2% August increase. Shipments of durable goods industries rose 0.2% (10.9% y/y), the 13th straight m/m rise, on top of a 1.3% August gain. Shipments grew in some key industry groups, notably by gains of 1.2% (20.7% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.7% (8.0% y/y) in computers & electronic products. In contrast, shipments for primary metals (-2.0%; +3.4% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-1.2%; +4.1% y/y) fell in September, posting their third m/m drops in four months. Shipments for electrical equipment, appliances & components fell back 0.6% (+9.1% y/y) in September, the second m/m fall in three months.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 0.2% (12.7% y/y) in September, the eighth meaningful m/m rise in nine months, after a 0.2% rebound in August. The September gain reflected monthly rises of 3.8% (12.2% y/y) in leather & allied products, 1.5% (1.8% y/y) in apparel, 1.2% (4.8% y/y) in textile products, 1.0% (44.1% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, 0.6% (12.4% y/y) in printing, 0.2% (5.7% y/y) in basic chemicals, and 0.1% (1.6% y/y) in paper products. In contrast, nondurable goods shipments for the following items registered m/m drops in September: plastics & rubber products (-0.6%; +5.8% y/y), food products (-0.4%; +3.9% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (-0.4%; +14.5% y/y), and textile mills (-0.2%; +3.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders rose 0.5% (6.9% y/y) in September, the 21st straight m/m gain, after rising at the same pace in August. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders grew 0.2% (4.5% y/y) after increases of 0.3% in both August and July. The September gain in unfilled orders was led by 0.8% (11.5% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.7% (8.7% y/y) in transportation equipment, and 0.5% (8.0% y/y) in machinery but partly offset by a 0.5% decline (-3.8% y/y) in furniture & related products.
Inventories increased 0.2% (7.8% y/y) in September following downticks of 0.13% in August and 0.02% in July. They showed their string of increases from October 2020 to June 2022. Excluding transportation, inventories recovered 0.2% (9.4% y/y) after a 0.2% August decline. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.2% (7.1% y/y), continuing their advances since February 2021, while inventories of nondurable goods inched up 0.05% (8.9% y/y) following two consecutive monthly decreases.
The factory sector data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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