U.S. FHFA House Prices Dip in January, the First M/M Decline Since Aug. ’22
Summary
- FHFA HPI -0.1% (+6.3% y/y) in Jan. vs. +0.1% (+6.7% y/y) in Dec.
- House prices drop m/m in four of nine census divisions but rise m/m in West North Central and New England.
- House prices gain y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in East North Central (8.7%).
U.S. house prices slipped 0.1% m/m in January after unrevised rises of 0.1% in December and 0.4% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The January reading was the first m/m decline since August 2022’s 0.4% decrease. The January HPI at 417.49 was 48.1% above a low of 281.93 in May 2020. The year-on-year rate of increase, while remaining near the historical average, eased to 6.3% in January, the lowest since September, from 6.7% in December; it was up from 5.4% in January 2023 but down from a high of 18.9% in February 2022.
The month-on-month declines in house prices were evident in January (vs. December) in four of the nine census divisions. These included South Atlantic (-0.6% vs. +0.4%), Middle Atlantic (-0.4% vs. +0.4%), Mountain (-0.4% vs. +0.5%), and East South Central (-0.2% vs. +0.3%). To the upside, house prices rebounded m/m in two census divisions in January (vs. December): West North Central (1.5% vs. -0.8%) and New England (0.6% vs. -0.5%). Meanwhile, house prices in the following three census divisions were virtually unchanged m/m in January (vs. December): East North Central (0.04% vs. +0.3%), West South Central (0.0% vs. -0.4%), and Pacific (-0.03% vs. +0.1%).
Year-on-year house prices continued to gain in January, with the pace of advance accelerating (vs. December) in three of the nine census divisions. These included West North Central (7.1% vs. 5.8%), Pacific (4.9% vs. 4.7%), and West South Central (3.8% vs. 3.3%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in January (vs. December) in the following six census divisions: Mountain (4.8% vs. 5.5%), East South Central (5.7% vs. 5.8%), South Atlantic (6.1% vs. 7.5%), New England (8.4% vs. 10.0%), Middle Atlantic (8.6% vs. 9.4%), and East North Central (8.7% vs. 8.8%).
The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.
The FHFA data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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