U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline Sharply Last Week

Retail gasoline prices for all grades fell to $3.55 per gallon (-4.2% y/y) in the week ended June 10 from $3.64 in the prior week. It was the lowest price since the second week of March. The recent high was $4.00 per gallon in the third week of September, and the all-time high was $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel fell to an average $3.66 per gallon (-3.6% y/y) last week from $3.73 in the prior week. This compared to a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September 2023.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil of $74.52 per barrel (+4.1% y/y) in the week ended June 7 slid from an average $78.76 per barrel in the prior week. It remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023 but below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was reached in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil improved to $77.74 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil fell $78.82 per barrel (2.7% y/y) in the week ended June 7 compared to $82.68 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $78.28 per barrel.

Natural gas prices reversed direction and rose to an average of $2.43/mmbtu (+22.1% y/y) in the week ended June 7 after falling to $2.04/mmbtu in the prior week. These compared to $2.00 in the second week of May and to a low of $1.40 averaged in the week of March 15. Yesterday, the price of natural gas recovered to $2.61/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand fell 1.0% y/y in the four weeks ended May 31 after declining 1.7% y/y in the four weeks ended May 24. Demand for all petroleum products rose 1.3% y/y in the last four weeks after easing 0.1% in the previous period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 3.2% y/y in the four weeks ended May 31 compared to a 2.8% y/y gain during the previous four week period.

Gasoline inventories rose 5.5% y/y in the week of May 31 after rising 5.9% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 12.8% y/y in the week of May 31 after declining by the same amount in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 2.3% y/y in the week of May 31 following a 2.1% y/y rise in the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories edged higher w/w to 25.5 days from 25.3 days in the week of May 31. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories fell to 27.2 days in the week of May 31 from 27.7 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023. These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY and USENERGY databases.