U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens Sharply in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Deficit deepening reverses most of earlier shrinkage.
- Sharp export decline reflects weakness in consumer & capital goods.
- Import increase powered by consumer & foods.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods grew to $108.2 billion in September after narrowing to $94.2 billion in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. It was the deepest deficit since March 2022. It caused the average for Q3’24 to grow to $101.7 billion from $99.0 billion in Q2, suggesting a sharp subtraction by foreign trade in tomorrow’s report on Q3 real GDP growth. A deficit of $95.5 billion for September had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The goods trade deficit reached a peak of $125.3 billion in March 2022. In Q2'24, trade deficit deterioration subtracted 0.90 percentage point from real GDP growth.
Total goods exports declined 1.6% (+0.1% y/y) in September after rising 2.4% in August and 0.4% in July. The decline reflected a 6.9% drop (-10.5% y/y) in exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos which followed a 5.3% rise. Capital goods exports weakened 3.2% (+9.4% y/y) and reversed a 2.5% August increase. Industrial supplies exports declined 1.6% (-2.9 y/y) after improving 0.6% in August. Working higher, automotive vehicles & parts exports rose 5.3% (-5.6% y/y) following a 4.6% gain. Exports of foods, feeds & beverages rose 5.1% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.9% August decline. Exports of other goods rose 1.7% (2.1% y/y) following an 8.7% August rise.
Total goods imports rose 4.1% (8.7% y/y) in September following a 1.6% weakening in August. Nonauto consumer goods imports gained 5.9% (10.1% y/y) after rising 0.5% in August. Foods, feeds & beverage imports increased 4.6% (12.4% y/y) following a 2.6% rise. Industrial supplies & materials imports rose 4.2% (-0.5% y/y) after falling 6.9%. Automotive vehicles & parts imports rose 2.9% (-2.3% y/y) after falling 3.2% while capital goods imports improved 3.7% (20.8% y/y) following a 0.5% easing. Imports of other goods slipped 0.5% in September (+4.5% y/y) after rising 5.4% in August.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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