U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to $94.26 Billion in August
Summary
- Smallest goods trade deficit since March and smaller than expected.
- Exports rise 2.4%, the second m/m gain in three months.
- Imports drop 1.6%, the first m/m decline since May.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $94.26 billion in August after widening to $102.84 billion in July (largest since May ’22), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. This was the second time in eight months that the goods deficit narrowed. The August deficit was the smallest since March but larger than an $83.69 billion shortfall in August 2023. A deficit of $99.8 billion for August had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $120.72 billion in March 2022. In Q2'24, the goods trade deficit widened to $293.74 billion, the largest since Q2'22, after rising to $273.77 billion in Q1'24. The trade deficit subtracted 0.83%-point from real GDP growth in Q2'24 after having subtracted 0.71%-point in Q1'24. The monthly deficit averaged $97.91 billion in Q2'24, the biggest since Q2'22, up from an average of $91.26 billion in Q1'24.
Total exports rose 2.4% m/m (4.1% y/y) in August after easing 0.05% in July and rebounding 2.8% in June. Nevertheless, exports had fallen 2.3% since a July 2022 high. The rise in exports in August reflected exports m/m increases of 6.9% (17.4% y/y) in other goods, 5.3% (3.4% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 4.6% (-8.7% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 2.9% (12.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 0.6% (-1.5% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. In contrast, exports of foods, feeds & beverages were the only end-use category with a monthly drop in August; they fell 1.0% (+4.4% y/y), the first m/m fall in three months, after a 1.3% July increase.
Total imports fell 1.6% m/m (+6.9% y/y) in August, the first m/m fall since May, following a 2.3% increase in July. Imports had fallen 6.2% since a March 2022 high. The fall in imports in August reflected imports m/m declines of 7.1% (-2.5% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 3.2% (-0.1% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, and 0.6% (+17.3% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the upside, imports for the following categories rose m/m in August: other goods (6.0%, the first m/m increase since May; 7.9% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (2.5%, the third m/m rise in four months; 7.1% y/y), and nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (0.4%, the third straight m/m increase; 7.3% y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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