U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to a Five-Month Low in August
Summary
- $84.27 billion deficit in August, smaller than expected.
- Exports increase 2.2%, up for the second straight month.
- Imports decline 1.2%, down for the third time in four months.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $84.27 billion in August after widening to $90.92 billion in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the smallest goods deficit since March and smaller than an $87.40 billion shortfall in August 2022. A $91.5 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $121.18 billion in March 2022. The goods trade deficit widened to $277.64 billion in Q2'23, the largest since Q2'22, after narrowing to $264.10 billion in Q1'23. The goods trade deficit subtracted 0.53%-point from real GDP growth in Q2'23.
Total exports rose 2.2% m/m (-5.9% y/y) in August after a 1.7% gain in July. However, exports had fallen 6.6% since a July 2022 high. The rise in exports in August reflected exports m/m increases of 4.9% (4.6% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 4.5% (-18.4% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 3.5% (7.0% y/y) in other goods, and 2.1% (4.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. In contrast, exports of automotive vehicles & parts fell 8.1% (+16.4% y/y), the deepest m/m fall since February, while exports of foods, feeds & beverages slipped 0.1% (-19.8% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m decline.
Total imports fell 1.2% m/m (-5.2% y/y) in August, the third monthly fall in four months, after a 2.1% rebound in July. Imports had fallen 12.6% since a March 2022 high. The decline in imports in August reflected imports m/m drops of 4.9% (+10.4% y/y) in other goods, 3.4% (-8.2% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 3.1% (-2.8% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 1.5% (+14.4% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, and 0.7% (-3.2% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. To the upside, imports of industrial supplies & materials were the only end-use category with a monthly increase, rebounding 4.9% in August (-17.4% y/y) following three straight m/m decreases.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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