U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widens to a Record $153.3 Billion in January
Summary
- Deepening in goods trade deficit after December’s widening.
- Exports rise 2.0% m/m vs. a 3.8% December drop, led by a 10.9% rebound in exports of consumer goods ex-autos.
- Imports, up in all end-use categories, jump 11.9%, the largest m/m increase since July ’20 to a record level, led by a record 32.7% surge in imports of industrial supplies & materials.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods ballooned to $153.26 billion in January after widening to $122.01 billion in December, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The January deficit was the largest on record and much larger than a $90.28 billion shortfall in January 2024. A deficit of $115.0 billion for January had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a high of $120.72 billion in March 2022. In Q4'24, the goods trade deficit widened to $324.13 billion, the largest since Q1'22, after rising to $307.39 billion in Q3'24. The goods trade deficit added 0.24%-point to real GDP growth in Q4'24 after having subtracted 0.44%-point in Q3'24. The monthly deficit averaged $108.04 billion in Q4'24, the biggest since Q1'22, up from an average of $102.46 billion in Q3'24.
Total goods exports rose 2.0% m/m (1.8% y/y) to $172.16 billion in January, the second monthly rise in three months, following a 3.8% decline in December. Nevertheless, exports had fallen 5.0% since a July 2022 high. The rise in exports in January reflected exports m/m rebounds of 10.9% (2.7% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos and 8.0% (10.1% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the downside, exports for the following end-use categories fell m/m in January: other goods (-13.8%; +13.2% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (-7.9%; -2.1% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (-3.0%; -15.5% y/y), and industrial supplies & materials (-0.4%; -1.7% y/y).
Total goods imports jumped 11.9% m/m (25.5% y/y) in January on top of a 4.0% rise in December, posting the third consecutive m/m increase and the largest since July 2020. The January goods imports of $325.42 billion was the biggest on record. Imports had risen 12.5% since a March 2022 high. The jump in imports in January reflected m/m increases in all imports end-use categories. These included m/m rises of a record 32.7% (63.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 8.5% (15.7% y/y) in other goods, 8.3% (25.9% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 4.8% (17.4% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 4.3% (19.1% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 2.3% (-6.1% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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