U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widened During October
Summary
- The trade deficit in goods widened by more than expected during October.
- Exports posted their second consecutive monthly decline.
- Imports rose for the second consecutive month.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $99.0 billion during October from $91.9 billion during September. The deficit had reached a peak of $125.7 billion in March of this year. A $90.6 billion October deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports of goods fell 2.6% (+10.7% y/y) in October, following a decline of 1.9% (+24.0% y/y) during September. Imports rose 0.9% (+12.6% y/y) after the September rise of 1.0% (13.1% y/y).
The weakening in exports during October reflected a decline of 9.4% (-6.3% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods in October after a 0.4% drop in September, and a 4.7% (+20.7% y/y) drop in industrial supplies & materials exports, following a 3.1% decline during September and marking the fourth straight monthly decline. Exports of nonauto capital goods eased 0.1% (+9.9% y/y) in October after a 2.4% rise in September, while exports of autos & auto parts rose 2.5% (10.9% y/y), after a 5.1% advance in September. Food, feeds & beverage exports rebounded 3.7% (-4.8% y/y) in October following the 13.6% contraction in September, while exports of "other" goods declined 0.3% (+18.1% y/y) after an 8.8% contraction in September.
The rise in imports during October reflected a 2.9% (11.1% y/y) rise in food, feeds & beverage imports after a 1.3% decline during September, a 2.2% (30.0% y/y) rise in automotive vehicles, following a 1.8% rise in the prior month, and a 1.5% (13.1% y/y) rise in industrial supplies & materials imports after a 2.9% drop in September. “Other” goods imports rose 16.2% (-6.6% y/y) in October following a 1.5% decline in September. Nonauto capital goods imports declined 0.7% (+14.4% y/y) in October after a 4.6% rise in the prior month, while nonauto consumer goods imports contracted 1.2% (+6.7% y/y) after a 1.7% rise in September.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Kathleen Stephansen, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Kathleen Stephansen is a Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and an Independent Trustee for the EQAT/VIP/1290 Trust Funds, encompassing the US mutual funds sponsored by the Equitable Life Insurance Company. She is a former Chief Economist of Huawei Technologies USA, Senior Economic Advisor to the Boston Consulting Group, Chief Economist of the American International Group (AIG) and AIG Asset Management’s Senior Strategist and Global Head of Sovereign Research. Prior to joining AIG in 2010, Kathleen held various positions as Chief Economist or Head of Global Research at Aladdin Capital Holdings, Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette Securities Corporation.
Kathleen serves on the boards of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), as Vice-Chair of the GIC College of Central Bankers, is the Treasurer for Economists for Peace and Security (EPS) and is a former board member of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). She is a member of Chatham House and the Economic Club of New York. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the Universite Catholique de Louvain and graduate degrees in economics from the University of New Hampshire (MA) and the London School of Economics (PhD abd).
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