U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens in September
Summary
- $85.78 billion in September, in line with expectations.
- Exports increase 2.9%, up for the third straight month.
- Imports rebound 2.4%, up for the second time in three months.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $85.78 billion in September after narrowing to $84.64 billion in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The September reading was smaller than a $90.59 billion shortfall in September 2022. A $85.7 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $121.18 billion in March 2022. In Q3'23, the goods trade deficit narrowed to $261.35 billion, the smallest since Q1'21, after widening to $277.64 billion in Q2'23. The goods trade deficit subtracted 0.09%-point from real GDP growth in Q3'23 after having subtracted 0.53%-point in Q2'23.
Total exports rose 2.9% m/m (-2.2% y/y) in September, the third consecutive monthly rise, after a 2.3% increase in August. However, exports had fallen 3.8% since a July 2022 high. The rise in exports in September reflected exports m/m widespread gains across end-use categories. These included 10.8% (20.9% y/y) in other goods, 10.6% (-3.1% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 7.0% (11.0% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 1.8% (-15.0% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 1.0% (15.3% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, and 0.1% (2.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos.
Total imports grew 2.4% m/m (-3.3% y/y) in September, the second monthly increase in three months, after a 1.0% decline in August. Nevertheless, imports had fallen 10.3% since a March 2022 high. The increase in imports in September reflected imports m/m rises of 4.8% (17.1% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 3.7% (18.5% y/y) in other goods, 2.8% (-6.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 1.9% (-4.4% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 1.6% (-13.0% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. To the downside, imports of foods, feeds & beverages were the only end-use category with a monthly decline in September, falling 0.6% (-3.3% y/y) for the second successive month.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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