U.S. Retail Sales Edge Higher in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Core retail spending firms.
- Lower gasoline prices hold back last month’s increase.
- Online spending recovers; spending change elsewhere is modest.
Total retail sales increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during February after falling 1.2% in January, revised from down 0.9%, and rising an unrevised 0.7% in December, according to the U.S Census Bureau. Expectations had been for a 0.6% February gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 0.3% last month (3.1% y/y) following a 0.6% decline, revised from down 0.4%. A 0.4% gain had been expected for February.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & food services, rose 1.0% last month (4.4% y/y) and reversed a 1.0% January decline, revised from down 0.8%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts eased 0.4% (+3.1% y/y) last month and followed a 3.7% January decline. The decline compared to a 2.5% rise (2.0% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 7.7% January decline. Spending at gasoline stations weakened 1.0% (-0.3% y/y) after increasing 1.3% in January. The rise came as gasoline prices increased 1.0% (NSA) on average during February.
By category, nonstore retail sales rebounded 2.4% (6.5% y/y) in February following a 2.4% January drop. Furniture & home furnishings store sales held steady (+5.5% y/y) after falling 1.2%. Electronics & appliance store sales weakened 0.3% (-5.3% y/y) a 1.1% January improvement. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.2% (-0.7% y/y), after four straight monthly declines. Clothing & accessory store sales were off 0.6% (+1.0% y/y) after falling 0.7% in January. Sporting goods, hobby & book shop sales fell 0.4% (-3.0% y/y) after weakening 3.1%. General merchandise store sales improved 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after two months of 0.5% increase. Within that category, department store sales declined 1.7% (-3.9% y/y) last month following a 0.8% rise.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 1.7% (6.7% y/y) in February after falling 1.1% in January. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.4% (3.9% y/y) after easing 0.1% during January.
Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 1.5% (+1.5% y/y) last month after holding steady in January.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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