U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens to $102.66 Billion in July
Summary
- Largest goods trade deficit since May ’22 and larger than expected.
- Exports hold steady m/m after a 2.7% June rebound.
- Imports rise 2.3% m/m, the third monthly increase in four months.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $102.66 billion in July after narrowing to $96.56 billion in June, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. This was the sixth time in seven months that the goods deficit widened. The July deficit was the biggest since May 2022 and larger than an $89.09 billion shortfall in July 2023. A deficit of $97.0 billion for July had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $120.72 billion in March 2022. In Q2'24, the goods trade deficit widened to $293.82 billion, the largest since Q2'22, after rising to $273.77 billion in Q1'24. The trade deficit subtracted 0.76%-point from real GDP growth in Q2'24 after having subtracted 0.75%-point in Q1'24. The monthly deficit averaged $97.94 billion in Q2'24, the biggest since Q2'22, up from an average of $91.26 billion in Q1'24.
Total exports were essentially unchanged m/m (+4.4% y/y) in July following a 2.7% gain in June and a 1.6% drop in May. Exports had fallen 4.6% since a July 2022 high. The unchanged exports in July reflected m/m decreases of 11.3% in automotive vehicles & parts (the deepest m/m fall since April 2020; -17.4% y/y) and 3.6% in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (the first m/m drop since March; +2.5% y/y). To the upside, exports for the following categories rose m/m in July: capital goods excluding autos (3.8%; 12.5% y/y), other goods (1.9%; 11.5% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (1.2%; 7.3% y/y), and industrial supplies & materials (0.3%; 2.8% y/y).
Total imports rose 2.3% m/m (8.2% y/y) in July, up for the third month in four, on top of a 0.8% rebound in June. Nevertheless, imports had fallen 4.7% since a March 2022 high. The rise in imports in July reflected imports m/m increases of 4.9% (9.5% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 4.0% (16.4% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 1.3% (3.8% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 0.9% (4.5% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. To the downside, imports for the following categories fell m/m in July: other goods (-3.7%, the second straight m/m decrease; -0.9% y/y) and automotive vehicles & parts (-0.6%, the fourth m/m decline in five months; +2.0% y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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