U.S. Gov’t Budget Deficit Deepens in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Deficit is largest since March & expands y/y.
- Revenues rise y/y as individual tax receipts surge.
- Outlays strengthen with Medicare & Social Security.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $314.0 billion in November 2023 compared to a $248.5 billion deficit in November 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $257.6 billion deficit. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, the deficit totaled $380.6 billion versus $336.4 billion last year.
Overall revenues increased 18.9% y/y this fiscal year as individual income tax receipts rose 20.0%. The level of corporate tax receipts more than doubled versus early last year. Social insurance revenues improved a steady 5.8% y/y and excise taxes rose 7.9% y/y so far in FY’24. Customs duties fell 13.9% y/y, continuing the decline of the last year.
Federal government outlays increased 16.7% y/y in FY’24. Medicare payments increased 16.5% y/y while Social Security outlays rose 12.0%. Defense spending rose 13.9% this year following a 7.0% FY’23 rise. Interest payments strengthened by two-thirds. Offsetting these increases, income security outlays fell 15.1% y/y this year and health program spending was unchanged y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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