U.S. Government Budget Deficit Closes in on $2 Trillion Near Yearend FY 2024
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Personal income tax receipt growth remains strong.
- Corporate tax payments surge.
- Social Security spending fuels outlay growth.
For the first eleven months of FY 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $1.897 trillion compared to a $1.525 trillion deficit in the first eleven months of FY 2023. For August alone, the budget deficit of $380.1 billion compared to $89.3 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $252 billion deficit for August.
Overall revenues have increased 10.8% y/y through August as individual income tax receipts rose 11.3% y/y so far in FY’24. The level of corporate tax receipts increased 28.9% y/y versus the first eleven months of FY’24. Social insurance revenues have risen a lessened 5.6% y/y and excise taxes have increased 29.9% y/y so far in FY’24. Customs duties fell 5.3% y/y, continuing the decline since late-2022.
Federal government outlays have risen 14.4% y/y so far in FY’24 after a 2.7% first eleven-month gain in FY’23. Defense spending rose a modestly strengthened 8.4% y/y this fiscal year. Social Security outlays rose 7.9% y/y after rising 11.0% y/y in the first eleven months of FY’23. Interest payments soared 34.0% y/y so far in FY’24. Health program spending rose 1.5% y/y after declining 3.0% y/y in the first eleven months of FY’23 while Medicare payments jumped 16.4% y/y. Income security outlays fell 11.6% y/y this fiscal year compared to an 11.2% y/y decline in the first eleven months of FY’23.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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