U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in FY 2023
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Larger deficit partially reverses FY’22 improvement.
- Revenues decline further with lower individual tax receipts.
- Outlay growth remains strong as Medicare & Social Security payments rise.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the U.S. government budget deficit increased to $1.70 trillion during FY’23 from $1.38 trillion in FY’22. Despite the increase, the deficit remained shallower than the $3.13 trillion peak in FY’20. For September alone, the deficit totaled $171.0 billion compared to a deficit of $430.0 billion during September of FY’22. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $64.8 billion deficit.
Overall revenues declined 9.3% last fiscal year compared to a 21.0% rise in FY’22. Individual income tax receipts fell 17.3% from FY’22 after a 28.8% gain. Corporate tax receipts declined 1.2% this fiscal year after a 14.3% FY’22 rise. Social insurance revenues rose 8.8% after increasing 12.9% in FY’22 but excise taxes fell 13.6% in FY’23 and reversed a 16.5% gain in the prior year. Customs duties declined 19.6% last year after rising 24.9% in FY’22.
Federal government outlays decreased 2.2% in FY’23 after falling 8.1% in FY’22. Medicare payments increased 12.2% after an 8.4% FY’22 gain while Social Security outlays rose 11.1% in FY’23 after rising 7.4% in the prior year. Defense spending rose 7.0% following a 1.6% FY’22 rise. Interest payments strengthened 38.7% in FY’23 after rising 34.9% in FY’22. Offsetting these increases, income security outlays fell 10.6% in FY’23 following a 47.5% fall in the prior year and health program spending declined 2.8% following a 14.8% increase in FY’22.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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