U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Year-to-date, the deficit more than doubles versus FY’22.
- Revenues continue to decline with lower individual tax receipts.
- Outlay growth is strong as Medicare & Social Security payments rise.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $220.8 billion during July compared to a deficit of $211.1 billion during July of last year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $107.5 billion deficit for last month. For the first ten months of the current fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $1.613 trillion versus a deficit of $726.1 billion over the same period last fiscal year.
Overall revenues have declined 10.1% y/y so far during FY’23 versus the first ten months of last fiscal year. Individual income tax receipts fell 19.4% y/y. Corporate tax payments improved 1.9% y/y so far in this fiscal year. Social insurance revenues rose 10.4% y/y but excise taxes fell 10.9% y/y so far in FY’23. Customs duties declined 18.6% y/y.
Federal government outlays have increased 9.8% y/y so far in FY’23. Medicare payments increased 11.3% y/y this fiscal year while Social Security outlays rose 10.9% y/y. Defense spending rose 7.0% y/y. Interest payments strengthened 37.3% y/y so far in FY’23. Offsetting these increases, income security outlays fell 11.3% y/y this fiscal year and health program spending declined 2.4% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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