U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revenues decline with lower personal tax receipts.
- Outlays surge for Medicare, Social Security & Interest.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $378.1 billion during March compared to a deficit of $192.6 during March FY’22. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $222 billion deficit. For the first six months of the current fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $1.101 trillion billion versus a deficit of $668.2 billion over the same period last year.
Overall revenues have declined 3.5% so far during FY’23 versus FY’22. Individual income tax receipts fell 8.5% y/y. Corporate tax payments increased 10.0% y/y this fiscal year. Social insurance revenues rose 8.9% y/y and excise taxes are up 3.6% y/y so far in FY’23.
Federal government outlays have increased 12.9% y/y so far in FY’23. Medicare outlays rose 16.8% y/y, while Social Security outlays have increased 10.3% y/y so far in FY’23. National defense outlays grew 8.1% y/y. Interest payments surged 42.4% y/y so far in FY’23. To the downside, income security payments fell 10.3% y/y. Outlays on health programs are down 2.7% y/y so far in FY’23.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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