U.S. Government Budget Deficit Narrows in FY 2024
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Personal income tax receipts surge.
- Corporate tax payments strengthen.
- Outlay growth picks up with higher Social Security spending.
For the first nine months of FY 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $1.268 trillion compared to a $1.393 billion deficit in the first nine months of FY 2023. For June alone, the budget deficit of $66 billion compared to $227.8 billion twelve months earlier. Calendar quirks account for the relatively low level of the 2024 figure. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $77 billion deficit for June.
Overall revenues have increased 10.0% y/y through June as individual income tax receipts rose 11.3% y/y so far in FY’24. The level of corporate tax receipts increased by roughly one-quarter versus the first nine months of FY’23. Social insurance revenues have risen 5.2% y/y and excise taxes have increased 8.1% y/y so far in FY’24. Customs duties fell 8.0% y/y, continuing the decline since late-2022.
Federal government outlays have increased 4.5% y/y so far in FY’24. Defense spending rose 5.5% this fiscal year versus a 9.0% y/y gain in the first nine months of FY’23. Social Security outlays rose 8.2% y/y after rising 10.8% in the first nine months of FY’23. Interest payments strengthened 38.1% y/y so far in FY’24, about as they did last year. Health program spending declined 0.5% y/y while Medicare payments fell 1.0% y/y. Income security outlays fell 18.5% during this fiscal year compared to a 10.6% y/y decline in the first nine months of FY’23.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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