Tom Moeller

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The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget surplus of $176.2 billion during April compared to a surplus of $308.2 during April FY’22. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $365 billion surplus. For the first seven months of the current fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $924.5 billion versus a deficit of $360.0 billion over the same period last year.

Overall revenues have declined 10.0% so far during FY’23 versus FY’22. Individual income tax receipts fell 17.9% y/y. Corporate tax payments increased 2.2% y/y this fiscal year. Social insurance revenues rose 8.9% y/y but excise taxes fell 4.2% y/y so far in FY’23.

Federal government outlays have risen 7.9% y/y so far in FY’23. Social Security outlays increased 10.5% y/y this fiscal year and national defense outlays grew 6.2% y/y. Interest payments surged 42.5% y/y so far in FY’23. To the downside, income security payments fell 16.1% y/y. Medicare outlays weakened 3.9% y/y, while outlays on health programs are down 3.8% y/y so far in FY’23.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Revenues decline with lower personal tax receipts.
- Outlays surge for Social Security, Defense & Interest.

U.S. Government Budget Surplus Shrinks Y/Y in April

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The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators eased 0.2% (-5.0% y/y) during August, following an unrevised 0.6% July decline. A 0.3% decline in the August index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.

Component increases in the leading indicators index included an improved factory sector workweek, lower unemployment insurance claims, factory orders for consumer goods, nondefense capital goods orders, building permits and the leading credit index. Putting negative pressure on the leading index were the ISM new orders index, stock prices in the S&P 500, the interest rate yield curve and consumer expectations for business/economic conditions.

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators increased 0.3% last month (1.4% y/y) after easing 0.1% in July, revised from no change. Each of the four component series contributed positively to the August gain including industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, real personal income and real manufacturing & trade sales.

The Index of Lagging Indicators was unchanged last month (+1.4% y/y) after easing an unrevised 0.1% in July. A higher business inventory-to-sales ratio contributed minimally to the index change. The duration of unemployment, factory unit labor costs, C&I loans outstanding and the 6-month change in the services CPI contributed negatively. The prime rate charged by banks and the consumer installment credit/income ratio had no effect on the index change.

The ratio of the coincident-to-lagging indicators, considered another leading indicator, rose slightly last month following no change in July.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

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- Component movement in leading index is mixed.
- Coincident indicators rebound.
- Lagging indicators hold steady.

U.S. Leading Indicators Weaken in August

Sandy Batten

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Sales of existing homes fell 2.5% m/m (-4.2% y/y) in August to 3.86 million units at an annual rate. This was the second lowest level of sales since October 2010 and the fifth monthly decline in the past six months as elevated mortgage interest rates, high prices and the lack of supply continue to plague the housing market. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected August sales of 3.90 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) eased 1.1% m/m in August (+3.1% y/y) to $416,700, its second consecutive monthly decline after having risen to a record $426,900 in June. Prices remained almost twice their level of $221,600 ten years ago. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.2% m/m to $422,100 in August. The median price for condos and co-ops edged down 0.2% m/m to $366,500. Existing home prices fell in every major region in August: -0.4% m/m in the Northeast, -1.8% m/m in the Midwest, -0.7% m/m in the South, and -1.1% m/m in the West.

Sales of single-family homes fell 2.8% m/m (-3.3% y/y) in August following a 1.7% monthly gain in July. Sales were unchanged in the Midwest but fell in the other three regions (-2.4% in Northeast, -4.3% in the South, and -3.0% in the West). Sales of condos and co-ops were unchanged in both August and July with sales unchanged in each major region in August.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 0.7% m/m (22.7% y/y) to 1.35 million in August after rising 1.5% in July. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) edged up to 4.2 months in August from 4.1% in both June and July. This figure has generally risen since February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database. 

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- Second lowest level since October 2010.
- Sales fell in the South, West, and Northeast, while the Midwest registered no change.
- The median price fell for the second consecutive month, but from a record high in June.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell in August

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The Current General Activity Diffusion Index rose to 1.7 during September from -7.0 in August, according to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, indicating modest improvement in activity in the third Federal Reserve District this month. A reading of -1.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Twenty-two percent of the firms reported increases in general activity in September while 20.2% reported decreases. Responses to this month's survey were collected from September 9 to September 16.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index declined to 49.3 in September after falling to 52.5 in August.

The new orders index fell to -1.5 this month after weakening to 14.6 in August, while the shipments series plummeted to -14.3, the lowest level since March of last year, after falling sharply to 8.5 in August. The unfilled orders index declined to -6.7 from 3.2 and the delivery times reading weakened to -0.7 after rising to 14.1 in August. Working higher, the inventories index increased to 5.0 this month after improving to -4.8 in August.

The number of employees’ index increased to 10.7 in September after falling to -5.7 in August, suggesting an overall increase in employment. Eleven percent of respondents reported increases in employment in September while none reported a decline. The average employee workweek index weakened to -13.6 in September from -2.3 in August.

Inflation indicators moved higher this month. The prices paid index rose sharply to 34.0 in September after rising to 24.0 in August. It was the highest level since December 2022. A higher 34.0% of respondents reported increases in input prices in June while none reported decreases. The prices received index rebounded to 24.6 and retraced its August decline to 13.7. A higher 24.	6% of respondents reported increases in the prices while no respondent reported a decline.

The future activity index edged up to 15.8 this month after declining to 15.4 from 38.7 in July. All of the components rose, notably unfilled orders, inventories and the average workweek. New orders, shipments, delivery times and employment showed lesser gains. The prices paid series recaptured most of its August decline while prices received did the same. The expected capital spending measure strengthened to its highest level in two and one-half years.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Current General Activity Index remains down sharply in Q3.
- New orders & shipments fall, but employment improves.
- Inflation indicators jump.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Moves Up in September

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The U.S. current account deficit widened markedly in the second quarter of 2024 to $266.8 billion from a revised $241.0 billion in Q1 (previously $237.6 billion). This was the second largest current account deficit in the history of the series, which dates back to 1960. The Q2 deficit was 3.7% of GDP, up from 3.4% in Q1. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected the deficit to widen to $260.0 billion in Q2.

The increase in the current account deficit in Q2 was due to a widening in the deficit on goods to $297.1 billion, also the second largest in the series history, from $276.9 billion in Q1. Exports of goods were essentially unchanged in Q2 from Q1 after rising 0.6% q/q in Q1. Imports of goods jumped 2.5% q/q in Q2 on top of a 2.0% quarterly gain in Q2. The services surplus was essentially unchanged in Q2 at $73.9 billion. Exports of services slowed to 1.1% q/q in Q2 from 2.0% q/q in Q1. Imports of services increased 1.5% q/q, up from a 1.1% increase in Q1.

Among the income accounts, the primary income surplus continued its secular decline, falling to $1.1 billion in Q2 from $6.7 billion in Q1. Primary income includes investment income and compensation of employees. Primary income receipts edged up 0.8% q/q in Q2 while primary income payments increased 2.4% q/q. The secondary income deficit widened slightly to $44.7 billion in Q2 from $44.4 billion in Q1. Secondary income includes transfer payments by governments, tax withholdings and insurance payments, among other items. Secondary income receipts fell 1.8% q/q while secondary income payments declined 0.7% q/q.

Among financial account transactions, the net acquisition of financial assets fell markedly to $153.1 billion Q2 from $361.7 billion in Q1. The net incurrence of financial liabilities fell to $387.0 billion in Q2 from $544.7 billion in Q1.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Second largest deficit on record.
- Goods deficit key factor, widening by more than $20 billion.
- Services surplus essentially unchanged.

U.S. Current Account Deficit Widened Markedly in Q2 2024