U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits Decline in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Both single-family & multi-family starts reverse earlier gain.
- Declines spread throughout country.
- Drop in building permits reflects multi-family plunge.
Total housing starts weakened 8.0% in June (-8.1% y/y) to 1.434 million units (SAAR) after rising 15.7% to 1.559 million in May, revised from 1.631 million. Starts are up 5.7% so far this year despite the sharp increase in mortgage interest rates. Longer term, starts remained 36.9% below the January 2006 peak of 2.273 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.475 million starts in May.
Starts of single-family homes declined 7.0% (-7.4% y/y) to 935,000 from 1.005 million during May, revised from 997,000. Single-family starts are up 5.4% since December. Starts of multi-family units weakened 9.9% (-9.4% y/y) to 499,000 after strengthening to 554,000 in May, revised from 634,000.
Starts in the Midwest fell by one-third (-21.0% y/y) in June to 162,000 after increasing 38.3% in May. Starts in the South fell 4.4% (-3.2% y/y) to 838,000 after rising 17.7% in May. In the Northeast, starts weakened 2.1% (-25.2% y/y) to 95,000 after falling 21.8% in May. Housing starts in the West fell 1.2% (-6.6% y/y) to 339,000 following a 12.8% May increase.
Building permits declined 3.7% (-15.3% y/y) in June to 1.440 million (SAAR) from 1.496 million in May, revised from 1.491 million units. Single-family permits rose 2.2% (-2.7% y/y) to 922,000 after increasing 5.4% in May. Multi-family permits dropped 12.8% last month (-31.2% y/y) to 518,000 after a 5.9% May rise.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
