U.S. Housing Starts Drop in December, Led by Single-family Sector
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Fewer single-family starts lead decline; multi-family improves.
- Starts decline through most of country.
- Building permits edge higher.
Total housing starts declined 4.3% (+7.6% y/y) during December to 1.460 million (SAAR) following a 10.8% November rise to 1.525 million, revised from 1.56 million. It was the first decline in four months. Starts were 19.0% below the most recent peak of 1.803 million in April 2022. During all of 2023, there were 1.415 million housing starts, down 8.8% from 1.551 million in 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.425 million starts in December.
Starts of single-family units prompted last month’s decline with an 8.6% falloff (+15.6% y/y) to 1.027 million following a 15.4% November gain to 1.124 million. During all of last year, single-family housing starts totaled 943,000, off 6.1% from 1.004 million in 2022. Multi-family starts increased 8.0% (-7.9% y/y) to 433,000 after easing 0.2% to 401,000 in November. In 2023 multi-family starts totaled 472,000, down 13.7% from 547,000 in 2022.
Starts declined in most areas of the country last month. In the Northeast, the level of starts fell 16.9% (-46.8% y/y) to 108,000 after rising 64.6% in November. For 2023, Northeastern starts fell 20.0% to 114,000. Starts in the Midwest were off 8.8% (+46.1% y/y) to 187,000 after falling 4.7% in November. During all of 2023, Midwestern starts declined 11.5% to 182,000. Starts in the South weakened 5.1% (+10.2% y/y) to 787,000 after rising 14.0% in November. For all of 2023, starts in the South declined 5.1% to 790,000. Increasing last month, starts in the West rose 4.7% (21.2% y/y) to 378,000 after increasing 1.7% in November. During all of 2023, starts in the West declined 11.3% to 328,000.
Building permits increased 1.9% (6.1% y/y) in December to 1.495 million after falling 2.1% to a little-revised 1.467 million in November. Building permits declined 12.3% during all of last year to 1.462 million. Single-family permits rose 1.7% (32.9% y/y) to 994,000 in December following a 0.9% increase in November. Multi-family permits rose 2.2% (-24.2% y/y) to 501,000, after declining 7.4% in November. Multi-family building permits reached a high of 800,000 high in December 2021.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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