U.S. Import & Export Prices Continue to Increase in March

Import prices for all goods rose 0.4% (NSA) in March after a 0.3% February gain and a 0.7% January increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.3% March gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These gains followed three consecutive monthly declines. The year-on-year change turned to a positive 0.4% after having reached a 6.1% rate of decline in June of 2023.

Export prices increased an expected 0.3% in March after rising 0.7% in February (revised from 0.8%) and 0.8% in January. These gains also followed three straight monthly declines. The 1.4% y/y decline compared to a sizable 11.8% y/y drop in June of last year.

The monthly rise in March import prices was led by a 6.0% increase (7.5% y/y) in imported petroleum prices after a 1.9% rise in February. The March increase was the third consecutive monthly gain following three straight m/m declines. The increase in imported petroleum costs occurred as natural gas prices declined sharply, bringing them down by one-half y/y. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.1% and were unchanged y/y. The reading followed four straight monthly increases. Import prices for foods, feeds & beverages surged 1.6% (4.5% y/y), up for the third consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts costs increased 0.2% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Working lower, capital goods prices fell 0.3% both m/m and y/y after a 0.2% rise while nonauto consumer goods prices weakened 0.3% (+0.5% y/y) after two straight monthly increases.

The smaller gain in March export prices included a 0.7% decline (-8.1% y/y) in agricultural export prices, which reversed February’s increase, and a 0.4% gain (-0.6% y/y) in nonagricultural export prices, the third straight monthly gain. Export prices for industrial supplies & materials rose 0.7% (-3.2% y/y), the third straight month of firm gain. A 0.5% rise (-0.8% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices came after an unchanged reading in February. Foods, feeds & beverage prices weakened 1.2% (-8.9% y/y) after rising 0.5% in February, but capital goods prices rose 0.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Meanwhile, export prices for consumer goods excluding autos rose 0.5% (-0.8% y/y) after holding steady in February. Automotive vehicles & parts export prices were unchanged (+2.9% y/y) for the second straight month.

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.