U.S. Import and Export Prices Drop in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Import price weakness is led by lower oil prices.
- Price declines of other imported goods are widespread.
- Export price decline reflects lower food prices.
Import prices declined 0.3% (NSA, +0.8% y/y) during August after rising an unrevised 0.1% in August. Expectations had been for a 0.1% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices fell 0.7% both m/m and y/y. The previously reported 0.7% increase in July was revised to +0.5%. The Action Economic Forecast Survey had looked for export prices to ease 0.1% in August.
The August decline in import prices was led by a 3.0% weakening (-4.6% y/y) in fuel & lubricant prices which followed a 1.1% July increase. Excluding this decline, import prices edged 0.1% lower (+1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% July improvement. Foods, feeds & beverages prices eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y) after strengthening 1.5% in July and 1.1% in June. Motor vehicle & parts prices held steady (+2.3% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Nonauto consumer goods prices slipped 0.1% in August (+0.5% y/y) after falling 0.2% in both of the prior two months. Capital goods prices inched 0.1% higher (0.3% y/y) after holding steady in July.
The August weakening in export prices reflected 1.8% decline (-5.8% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages prices which came after falling 1.7% in July. Industrial supplies and materials fell 1.1% (-2.0% y/y), following a 1.8% rise. Capital goods prices slipped 0.2% (+1.4% y/y) after holding steady, while auto export prices improved 0.1% (4.0% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.1% (-1.5% y/y) and reversed the July decline. Overall, agricultural export prices fell 2.0% (-6.9% y/y), the same as in July. Prices of nonagricultural exports declined 0.6% (-0.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise in July.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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