U.S. Import and Export Prices Fell Further in October
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- The fourth consecutive monthly decline for each.
- Y/Y rates of advance have declined by more than half over the past four months.
Import and export prices continued to fall in October as a slowing global economy put further downward pressure on U.S. traded goods prices. Import prices fell 0.2% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly decline following a 1.1% monthly decrease in September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.4% monthly decline in October. The yearly rate slowed further to 4.2% in October, down from 6.0% in September and a recent high of 13.0% in March. Export prices fell 0.3% m/m in October, as expected, after a downwardly revised 1.5% m/m drop in September (initially -0.8% m/m). The yearly rate fell to 6.9% from 9.2% in September. It has plummeted over the past four months from a recent high of 18.6% y/y in June.
The decline in import prices in October was led by a 1.3% m/m decrease in fuel prices, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Import prices excluding fuel slipped a more modest 0.1% m/m in October. Prices of imported foods, feeds and beverages fell 0.8% m/m and prices of imported consumer goods excluding autos declined 0.4% m/m. By contrast, prices of imported autos and parts increased 0.6% m/m while prices of imported capital goods edged up 0.1% m/m.
The October decline in export prices reflected a 1.0% m/m decrease in prices of exported agricultural commodities and a 0.3% m/m fall in prices of exported nonagricultural commodities. Both declines were the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. Prices of exported food, feeds and beverages fell 0.6% m/m; prices of industrial supplies exports declined 0.7%. By contrast, prices of capital goods exports rose 0.2% m/m, as also did prices of exported consumer goods excluding autos. Prices of exported capital goods have not recorded a monthly decrease since November 2020.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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