U.S. Import and Export Prices Rose in July
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Slight rise in import prices led by jump in imported food prices.
- Imported fuel prices rose 0.5% after a 1.9% decline in June.
- Larger-than-expected increase in export prices due mostly to 2.2% surge in prices of exported industrial supplies.
Import prices unexpectedly rose 0.1% m/m (1.6% y/y) in July after having been unchanged (not revised) in June. The 1.6% annual rate of advance was the largest since December 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.1% m/m decline. Export prices increased by a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m (1.4% y/y) in July, the first monthly increase in three months. The previously reported 0.5% m/m decline in June was revised to -0.3% m/m. The Action Economic Forecast Survey had looked for export prices to have been unchanged in July. The 1.4% annual rate of advance was the largest since January 2023.
The monthly rise in import prices was widely spread across end-use categories, led by a 1.4% m/m jump in prices of imported foods, feeds and beverages in July. Fuel prices rose 0.5% m/m, rebounding from a 1.9% monthly decline in June. Excluding the rise in fuel prices, the prices of the remaining imports rose 0.1% m/m (1.2% y/y) in July. The only end-use import category to experience a decline in prices in July was consumer goods excluding autos where prices edged down 0.1% m/m on top of a 0.2% monthly decline in June.
The monthly rise in export prices was concentrated in a 2.2% m/m jump in the prices of exported industrial supplies and materials. In general, higher nonagricultural prices in July (+1.0% m/m) more than offset lower prices for agricultural exports (-1.6% m/m). Prices of nonagricultural exports had fallen in both May and June. The July rebound was the latest monthly increase since August 2023. Capital goods prices were unchanged in July for the second consecutive month. Prices of exported food, feeds and beverages fell 1.5% m/m in July.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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