U.S. Import and Export Prices Rose More than Expected in July
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Import prices rebound led by rise in fuel prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices were unchanged.
- Export price increases widely spread across agricultural and nonagricultural products.
Import prices increased a larger-than-expected 0.4% m/m (-4.4% y/y) in July after having declined in five of the previous six months, including a 0.1% m/m fall in June (revised up slightly from -0.2% m/m), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Export prices rose 0.7% m/m (-7.9% y/y), their first monthly increase in five months, after a 0.7% m/m decline in June (revised up from -0.9% m/m). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.2% monthly increase in both import and export prices in July.
The rebound in import prices was due entirely to a 3.6% m/m jump in fuel prices, reflecting increase in prices of petroleum and natural gas. Excluding fuel, other import prices were unchanged in July (-0.9% y/y) versus a 0.3% monthly decline in June. Also, imported food prices rebounded sharply in July, rising 2.5% m/m (+2.7% y/y) for their first monthly increase in five months. Falling food and energy prices have been key factors behind the previous declines in import prices. Changes in import prices across other end-use categories were comparatively modest. Imported capital goods prices edged up 0.1% m/m; auto import prices rose 0.3% m/m while prices of imported consumer goods ex autos fell 0.1% m/m.
The rise in export prices reflected increases in the prices of both agricultural products (+0.9% m/m) and nonagricultural products (+0.6% m/m). Exported food prices increased 1.0% m/m, their first increase in three months. Prices of exported industrial supplies rose 1.4%m/m, their first increase in five months, boosted by a 6.7% monthly gain in exported fuel prices. Prices of capital goods exports edged up 0.1% m/m and prices of auto exports rose 0.2% m/m. By contrast, prices of exported consumer goods ex autos fell 0.2% m/m, their first month decline since November 2022.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
