U.S. Import Prices Edge Higher; Export Prices Strengthen in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Import prices show little change, held back by food costs.
- Export price rise centered on nonagricultural products.
- Fuels prices strengthen.
Import prices moved up 0.1% (-1.7% y/y) during September following a 0.6% August rise, revised from 0.5%. Prices in July rose an unrevised 0.1% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Export prices strengthened 0.7% (-4.1% y/y), after a 1.1% August gain, revised from 1.3%. Prices in July rose 0.4%, revised from 0.5%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.6% increase in both import and export prices in September.
The rise in import prices last month was held back by a 1.3% decline (+3.1% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverage import prices after rising 0.7% in August. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (+0.6% y/y) in September, the same as they did in the prior month. Motor vehicle & arts price also edged 0.1% lower (+1.6% y/y) after holding steady. Nonauto consumer goods prices held steady (-0.3% y/y) following modest declines in each of the prior three months. Working higher, fuel prices surged 4.4% (-8.3% y/y) after a 7.8% August increase. Excluding fuels, import prices eased 0.2% (-0.8% y/y) in September, the same as during August.
The rise in export prices during September reflected a 1.0% increase (-3.8% y/y) in nonagricultural product prices which followed a 1.5% August gain. Agricultural export product prices fell 1.1% (-7.8% y/y) after declining 2.1% in August. Industrial supplies & materials export prices rose 2.2% (-10.2% y/y) following a 3.5% rise in August. Motor vehicle & parts prices increased 1.0% (3.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Capital goods export prices edged 0.1% higher (2.0% y/y) and repeated the prior two months’ increase. To the downside, foods, feeds & beverage prices fell 1.5% (-8.3% y/y) after weakening 2.5% in August. Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.3% (+2.1% y/y), the same as in August.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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