U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Fall in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Index has declined in most months this year.
- Coincident indicators continue to rise.
- Lagging indicators exhibit more strength.
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index declined 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) during September after holding steady in August, revised from -0.3%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% decline in the index for last month.
Four of the Leading Index's ten components made negative contributions in September. Declines came from new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, stock prices and the leading credit index.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators improved 0.2% last month (2.3% y/y) after it edged 0.1% higher in August, revised from 0.1%. Each of the four index components rose including payroll employment, personal income, industrial production and business sales.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.6% during September (6.9% y/y) following a 0.8% August gain, revised from 0.7%. Five of the index's seven components made positive contributions: the average duration of unemployment, the services CPI, the business inventory/sales ratio and the prime rate and C&I loans.
The ratio of the Coincident index to the Lagging index also is seen as a leading indicator. The ratio has been steadily declining since November, suggesting rising recession risks.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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