U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decrease 15,000 in Latest Week
Summary
- Claims had been expected to rise slightly.
- Continued weeks claimed turned back higher in the January 7 week.
- Insured unemployment rate remained at 1.1% in the week ended January 7.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 15,000 to 190,000 (-20.8% y/y) during the week ended January 14 from the previous week’s 205,000, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a much smaller decrease to 210,000.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week’s average of 212,500, which was also unrevised. It again remained well below an early-August high of 249,500 but also well above an early-April low of 170,500.
In the week ended January 7, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance – also known as “insured unemployment” -- increased 17,000 to 1.647 million (-7.3% y/y) from 1,630 million in the prior week, which was revised from 1.634 million. The 4-week moving average was 1.673 million, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s 1.678 million.
The insured unemployment rate in the week ended January 7 was 1.1%, unchanged from the prior week. The insured unemployment rate has held consistently in the range of 1.0% to 1.2% since October. It had been as low as 0.9% between May and July.
In the week ended December 31, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs was 1.894 million, (-11.2% y/y) up from 1.734 million the week prior. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits, and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 31 were in Rhode Island (2.62%), New Jersey (2.58%), Alaska (2.36%), Minnesota (2.32%), and Montana (2.13%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.27%), Alabama (0.38%), Kansas and North Carolina (0.40%), and Florida (0.43%). Other state rates include Massachusetts (2.10%), Pennsylvania (1.79%), and Texas (0.98%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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