U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decrease 6,000 in Latest Week
Summary
- Claims had been expected to rise slightly.
- Continued weeks claimed turned back higher in the January 7 week.
- Insured unemployment rate remained at 1.1% in the week ended January 7.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased by 6,000 to 186,000 (-16.2% y/y) during the week ended January 21 from the previous week’s 192,000; that was revised slightly from 190,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected initial claims to rise by 10,000.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims was 197,500, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week’s average of 206,750, which was revised up by 750. It again remained well below an early-August high of 249,500 but also well above an early-April low of 170,500.
In the week ended January 14, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance – also known as “insured unemployment” -- increased by 20,000 to 1.675 million (-6.3% y/y) from 1,655 million in the prior week, which was revised from 1.647 million. The 4-week moving average for the January 14 week was 1.664 million, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s 1.675 million.
The insured unemployment rate in the week ended January 14 rose to 1.2% from 1.1% the prior two weeks. This rate has hovered between 1.1% and 1.2% since mid-November and maintained a range of 0.9% to 1.2% since February 2022.
In the week ended January 7, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs was 1.936 million (-9.6% y/y), up from 1.894 million the week prior. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits, and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending January 7 were in New Jersey (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.4%), Alaska and Minnesota (2.3%), California (2.2%) and Massachusetts, Montana and Puerto Rico (2.1%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.3%) and Alabama, Florida, Kansas and North Carolina (0.4%), Other state rates include Illinois (2.0%), New York (1.9%), Pennsylvania (1.7%), and Texas (1.0%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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