U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Down Moderately in July 6 Week
Summary
- Initial claims less than forecast survey had shown.
- Continuing claims decrease slightly, but still relatively higher than prior months.
- Insured unemployment rate maintains 1.2% amount for 15 months.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 222,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended July 6, down from the previous week’s 239,000; that earlier week was revised slightly from 238,000 reported before. The latest week was noticeably less than the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of 237,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 233,500, down from the prior week’s 238,750.
Insured unemployment, also known as continuing claims, was 1.852 million in the June 29 week, down a bit from the prior week’s 1.856 million. That earlier amount was revised from 1.858 million. The four-week moving average in the June 29 week was 1.840 million, higher than the prior week’s 1.830 million.
The insured unemployment rate was still 1.2% in the June 29 week. This is the number of continued weeks claimed as a percent of covered employment. So, this is yet another week at 1.2%, the value in place continuously since the week ended March 11, 2023.
Economic conditions vary widely among individual states and territories, as shown by the insured unemployment rates. In the week ended June 22, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.40%), California (2.18%), Minnesota (2.10%), Puerto Rico (2.06%) and Rhode Island (1.98%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.30%), Kansas (0.37%), Kentucky (0.42%), Virginia and Florida (each 0.44%) and North Carolina (0.45%). Other notable states include Ohio (0.81%), Texas (1.18%), New York (1.54%), Illinois (1.65%) and Pennsylvania (1.83%).
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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