U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall 13,000 in Latest Week
Summary
- Continuing claims for unemployment benefits decrease by 40,000.
- Insured unemployment rate dips to 1.1%.
- Insured unemployment rate in Hawaii rises to 2.0%.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 216,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended September 2, down from 229,000 in the August 26 week; that earlier week was revised up by just 1,000 from its initial report. The four-week moving average was 229,250 in the September 2, down from 237,750 the week before. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 233,000 in the September 2 week.
In the August 26 week, the number of continued weeks claimed, also known as “insured unemployment,” was 1.679 million, down 40,000 from the prior week’s 1.719 million. That earlier week was revised down from 1.725 million.
The insured unemployment rate dipped back down to 1.1% in the August 26 week from 1.2% the prior week. This measure, insured unemployment as a percentage of covered employment, has hovered between 1.1% and 1.2% since mid-April. A recent low was 0.9% last October.
The total number of recipients of unemployment insurance in all programs the August 19 week was 1.815 million, not seasonally adjusted. This is down from 1.828 million in the August 12 week, although it is notably larger than 1.415 million in the week of August 20, 2022. This total includes regular state programs plus federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Covid-related benefit programs have expired and are no longer included in the Labor Department’s main press release.
The unemployment situation varies widely across the various states and territories. Notably, this week, we observe a jump in the insured unemployment rate in Hawaii, from 1.23% in the week ended August 12 to 2.00% in the August 19 week; we presume this is related to the massive fire in Maui. Other states with the highest rates in the August 19 week include New Jersey (2.57%), California (2.20%), Rhode Island (2.08%), Puerto Rico (2.07%) and Massachusetts (1.97%). The lowest rate is in South Dakota, at just 0.20%; this is interesting in light of their Governor’s TV commercials indicating a need for workers in South Dakota. Other low-rate states include North Dakota and Kansas (both 0.34%), Kentucky (0.35%), Virginia (0.36%), and Nebraska (0.40%). Other sizable states include New York (1.91%), Pennsylvania (1.78%), Illinois (1.57%) and Texas (1.09%). The state data cited here are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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