U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Still Just 210,000 in October 21 Week
Summary
- Latest week up 10,000 from week before.
- Continuing claims 1.79 million, showing very slight uptrend.
- Insured unemployment rate still at 1.2%; high during 2023 just 1.3%.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 210,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended October 21, up 10,000 (4.5% y/y) from the prior week. That number was revised slightly from 198,000 reported before. The four-week moving average in the October 21 week was 207,500, up from 206,250 the week before. For the latest week alone, the Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 207,000.
The total number of insured unemployment, also known as “continued weeks claimed” or “continuing claims,” was 1.790 million in the October 14 week (+28.7% y/y), up from 1.727 million in the October 7 week. The four-week moving average was 1.724 million for the October 14 week, up from 1.692 million the week before. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Special pandemic-related programs have expired and are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of recipients in the latest available week as a percentage of covered employment, was 1.2% in the October 14 week, a third consecutive week at that level. This latest rate thus extends the tight range for the insured unemployment rate, 1.0%-1.3%, which has prevailed throughout 2023. The all-time low for this rate was 0.9%, which was recorded in August, September and early October of last year. These rates run back to 1971.
The insured unemployment rates in regular programs vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended October 7, the highest rate was still in Hawaii (2.20%); other of the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.00%), California (1.99%), Puerto Rico (1.82%) and New York (1.55%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), North Dakota (0.26%), Virginia, Kentucky and Kansas (each 0.33%), Nebraska (0.38%) and New Hampshire and Florida (each 0.39%). Other sizable states include Ohio (0.68%), Texas (0.98%), Pennsylvania (1.33%) and Massachusetts (1.53%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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